Ten Years After Paris Agreement: Challenges for Future Generations

As the Paris Agreement approaches its tenth anniversary in 2025, a new analysis highlights the pressing issues it presents for current and future generations. Despite the hope that its long-term goals could resolve the climate crisis by the end of the 21st century, experts predict significant challenges due to an anticipated climate "overshoot." This scenario posits that global temperatures could exceed the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, leading to severe repercussions for the so-called "overshoot generation."

In this analysis by Marcelo de Araujo and Pedro Fior Mota de Andrade, the authors argue that achieving the Paris Agreement's objectives hinges on the ability of current and future generations to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions effectively. The overshoot generation, living in the interim period before stabilization, will likely face the burden of removing substantial carbon emissions from the atmosphere to fulfill the agreement's ambitions.

Furthermore, the article emphasizes the concept of intergenerational justice, highlighting the conflicting interests among current, overshoot, and post-overshoot generations. The current generation may prioritize immediate needs at the expense of future generations, potentially leading to unequal burdens in climate transition efforts.

The authors also stress that without the widespread availability of carbon capture and storage technologies and other untested geoengineering solutions, the fate of the climate and the prospects for the overshoot generation remain uncertain. Ultimately, establishing a path toward a sustainable future that balances the needs of all generations will require significant cooperation and fairness in climate policies worldwide.