WTO Chief Economist Warns of Looming Trade Wars Under Trump Administration

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Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO), has raised concerns about escalating trade tensions as former President Donald Trump prepares to reimplement high tariffs. In an interview, Ossa stated that rising uncertainty is already harming global trade, with companies hesitant to make long-term investments. He highlighted that despite increased regional trade agreements and conflicts, over 75% of global trade remains governed by WTO rules.

Ossa emphasized the importance of international trade, arguing that countries focusing solely on independence are ultimately weakening themselves. He urged nations to recognize the benefits of specialization and trade, which can reduce global emissions through ecological comparisons in production efficiency.

While acknowledging the current crisis within the WTO and global trade, Ossa remained optimistic about its relevance. He noted that the anticipated growth in global goods trade—predicted to increase by 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025—contradicts notions of deglobalization.

As the U.S. government faces potential shifts in trade policies under Trump, Ossa advised that countries should monitor developments closely, strengthen partnerships with other trade allies, and avoid escalating conflicts. He warned against a "friend-enemy" dichotomy dominating trade discussions and advocated for plurilateral agreements as a means of stabilizing trade relations.

Ossa concluded that the future of the WTO depends on the commitment of its major members to uphold and adapt the existing trading framework, underlining that trade is essential for nations to maintain competitive advantages and stability in a complex global landscape.

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