Ten Years After the Paris Agreement: Evaluating Generational Impact on Climate Goals

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As the Paris Agreement approaches its tenth anniversary in 2025, experts are calling for a critical reassessment of its long-term climate goals and their implications for current and future generations. In an optimistic scenario, the achievement of the Paris Agreement could mitigate the climate crisis by the end of the 21st century. However, experts warn that a significant overshoot in global temperatures is likely to occur, surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few decades.

This "overshoot generation," living during this difficult period, may need to engage in massive greenhouse gas removal to ensure the ultimate success of the Agreement for the subsequent "post-overshoot generation." Access to carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and possible geoengineering solutions remains uncertain, putting the overshoot generation at a disadvantage as they face increasing climate challenges.

The article emphasizes that the current generation's policies could undermine the interests of the overshoot generation, which may have to bear the burden of retroactively mitigating past emissions. Enhancing intergenerational justice is critical as conflicting interests emerge among the current, overshoot, and post-overshoot generations. Without an equitable distribution of responsibilities, the choices made today could significantly impact the climate future and the survival of future generations.

The authors call on international stakeholders to recognize this dynamic in climate policy planning and to take actions that ensure a sustainable future for all generations involved.

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