Scientists Warn of Potential Catastrophic Volcanic Eruption This Century

Experts are sounding the alarm over the potential for a catastrophic volcanic eruption this century that could exceed the historical devastation of the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption in Indonesia. A team of climate scientists, including Markus Stoffel from Geneva University, emphasizes that the key issue is not if such an event will occur, but rather when it will happen.

Current studies suggest there is a significant probability—approximately one in six—that humanity could face a large-scale volcanic eruption by the end of this century. The 1815 Tambora eruption triggered a "year without summer," resulting in massive crop failures, famine, and widespread disease. The anticipated future eruption could have even more severe consequences, particularly due to the accelerating effects of climate change.

Researchers point out that today's warmer climate could amplify the destructive capabilities of volcanic eruptions. For example, past eruptions like that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 released substantial amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, cooling the planet dramatically. In a heated atmosphere, these effects could be accelerated, leading to quicker and larger-scale climate disruptions.

The potential economic ramifications of such an eruption are equally alarming, with estimates suggesting losses could exceed $3.6 trillion, affecting major economies including the United States, Russia, and China. Despite ongoing monitoring of volcanic activity in vulnerable regions, scientists acknowledge the limitations of current predictive models, making it impossible to accurately forecast when and where a significant volcanic event might occur.