Iran's Hostage Diplomacy Reemerges Amid Nuclear Negotiations

A report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) claims that Iran is secretly developing nuclear missiles with the capability to reach Europe, including potential targets such as Greece. The NCRI, an exiled opposition group, states that these missiles are being produced at two facilities disguised as satellite launch sites and are capable of traveling over 3,000 kilometers. According to the NCRI, one key facility identified is the Shahrud missiles site, which is managed by Iran's Organization for Advanced Defense Research and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The group alleges that a nuclear warhead being developed there will be fitted onto a Ghaem-100 missile, which has already undergone at least three test launches disguised as satellite operations. A second facility, reportedly over 43 miles southeast of Semnan, is believed to be developing Simorgh missiles using North Korean designs, with NCRI alleging that parts of this site are concealed underground. Soona Samsami, a representative of the NCRI in the U.S., criticized Tehran for accelerating its nuclear weapon development amidst vulnerability due to international pressure.

Iran is leveraging hostage-taking as a strategic diplomatic tool amid looming nuclear negotiations, with the recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala highlighting this tactic. Sala was detained in December 2024 and released on January 8, 2025, reportedly in exchange for the release of Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini from Italy. Political scientist David Rigoulet-Roze notes that such actions aim to secure concessions, including prisoner swaps and the unblocking of frozen funds. This approach to diplomacy has intensified since the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and underscores Iran's efforts to pressure European nations ahead of the agreement's expiration on October 18, 2025. The release of Sala and another European hostage, Nahid Taghavi, signifies Iran's strategic maneuvering, as it seeks renewed dialogue with countries involved in the nuclear talks—including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. As the situation evolves, the Iranian government aims to exploit divisions within Europe and extract favorable terms in its negotiations with Western powers, reflecting a long-standing pattern of obtaining leverage through hostage diplomacy.

Iran has resumed its use of hostage diplomacy, exemplified by the recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who was held for 21 days. According to political scientist David Rigoulet-Roze, this tactic serves two primary purposes: to negotiate the release of Iranian prisoners abroad and to reclaim frozen assets. Sala’s release on January 8 followed Italy's extradition of Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini, linked to drone-related attacks on American soldiers. The strategic nature of hostage diplomacy has evolved since the 2015 nuclear deal negotiations, becoming a core element of Iran's foreign policy as it faces the expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on October 18. Observers suggest that Iran is leveraging this tactic more aggressively as it seeks to divide European allies in the wake of increased U.S. sanctions. Moreover, the release of other hostages, such as German-Iranian Nahid Taghavi, coincided with nuclear negotiations in Geneva, indicating Iran's intent to use hostages as bargaining chips. As diplomatic efforts continue, the implications of hostage diplomacy remain significant in shaping international relations.