Water Scarcity: The Hidden Catalyst of Conflict in the Middle East

PSPalestinia|

Water scarcity is increasingly recognized as a critical challenge in the Middle East, with over 60% of the population residing in areas facing severe water shortages. According to the World Resource Institute, 14 of the 33 countries projected to be most water-stressed by 2040 are located in this region, underscoring the urgency of this crisis. Experts report that inadequate access to water contributes significantly to social unrest and migration from rural areas to cities, exacerbating existing tensions against governing regimes, particularly in Syria, where dependency on external water resources is exceptionally high.

While some narratives suggest that competition over water triggers inter-state conflicts, analysts like Selby and Fröhlich contend that local and sub-state issues pose more immediate threats to stability. Historical cooperation on water management among certain Middle Eastern nations suggests that collaborative solutions may outweigh the potential for conflict. Moreover, studies demonstrate that the assertions about water wars lack empirical support, with the primary drivers of instability often stemming from political and economic factors rather than merely resource scarcity.

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