Water Scarcity in the Middle East: A Source of Tensions, Not Wars

SYSyrian Arab Republic|

Water scarcity has been identified as a primary threat in the Middle East, affecting over 60% of the population living in water-scarce areas, according to the World Resource Institute. By 2040, fourteen of the thirty-three countries projected to experience the most severe water stress will be in this region. Experts warn that ongoing water shortages contribute to social and political unrest, particularly in countries like Syria, where rural migration to urban centers has intensified discord.

While the prevailing narrative suggests that competition for water resources may incite conflicts, scholars such as Jan Selby and Tobias Ide argue that historical evidence does not support the notion of "water wars." Rather, they emphasize the impacts of water scarcity on local economies and livelihoods, suggesting domestic tensions are more pressing than inter-state conflicts. Cooperation over shared water resources has been observed in regions like the Euphrates-Tigris basin, signaling the potential for negotiation rather than war.

A multi-dimensional approach is recommended to address these challenges, focusing on local water management and socio-economic vulnerabilities to mitigate the effects of water scarcity.

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