Water Scarcity in the Middle East: A Driver of Social and Political Change

Water scarcity has emerged as the greatest threat in the Middle East, affecting over 60% of the population, according to the World Resource Institute. In a report by Reza Sohrabi, fourteen of the thirty-three countries projected to be most water-stressed by 2040 are located in this region. This chronic water shortage not only impacts livelihoods but also exacerbates social and political tensions, particularly in countries like Syria and Iraq, where dependency on external water resources is high.

Scholars like Selby and Gleick argue that while water scarcity contributes to local unrest, it does not directly result in inter-state conflicts. Selby highlights that the primary drivers of the Syrian conflict included political and economic grievances, rather than water shortages alone. Historical cooperation among Middle Eastern nations over shared water resources, such as the Jordan River and Euphrates-Tigris basins, further underscores the potential for negotiation rather than warfare over water issues.

The current dialogue on water management in the region emphasizes a shift towards local solutions and cooperation, recognizing that addressing water scarcity at the community level is essential for mitigating its social impacts.