Water Scarcity in the Middle East: A Catalyst for Conflict or Cooperation?

SYSyrian Arab Republic|

Water scarcity poses a significant threat to over 60% of the Middle Eastern population, according to the World Resource Institute. By 2040, fourteen of the thirty-three countries expected to face the most severe water stress are located in the region, highlighting the urgency of addressing this issue.

Scholars like De Châtel and Gleick argue that the scarcity of water has been linked to social and political unrest, particularly in Syria, where it has exacerbated migration to urban areas and increased tensions against the regime. However, contrary evidence presented by researchers such as Selby suggests that the roots of conflict are primarily political and economic rather than solely due to water shortages.

Moreover, historical patterns indicate a tendency toward cooperation among Middle Eastern nations over water resources, challenging the narrative of impending water wars. Prominent scholars, including Dolatyar and Gray, argue that relations over shared water have more often fostered negotiation rather than conflict, suggesting a need for enhanced local management and cooperative agreements.

The ongoing discourse emphasizes understanding water scarcity at local and sub-state levels to mitigate its socio-economic impacts effectively.

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