Water Scarcity: A Growing Crisis in the Middle East

As water scarcity intensifies in the Middle East, it has emerged as the most significant threat to regional stability, according to the World Resource Institute. Over 60% of the population lives in areas facing severe water shortages, with fourteen of thirty-three expected water-stressed countries by 2040 located in the region. Water scarcity has been linked to social unrest, particularly in Syria, where inaccessibility has driven migration and political tensions, suggesting that while droughts may exacerbate issues, underlying political, social, and economic grievances are the primary conflict drivers.

While claims of "water wars" have been historically pronounced by figures like Boutros Boutros Ghali, recent studies challenge the validity of this narrative, noting a lack of evidence for inter-state conflict over water in the past fifty years. Instead, conflicts often occur at local levels, disrupting livelihoods and social structures. Researchers Dolatyar and Gray argue that cooperation over water resources has historically prevailed, illustrated by transboundary water agreements. This emphasizes the need for local-level water management strategies and cooperative solutions to address the challenges posed by growing water scarcity in the region.