Water Scarcity: A Growing Crisis in the Middle East

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of Syria's rebels who played a key role in the ousting of President Bashar Assad in December, has been appointed the country’s interim president. The announcement was made on January 31, 2025, by Col. Hassan Abdul Ghani, a spokesperson for the new government, as former insurgent factions met in Damascus and announced the cancellation of the existing constitution, according to state-run SANA news agency. Al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani and head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has promised to create a new government and constitution while pledging to protect the rights of women and religious minorities. The U.S. had previously designated a $10 million bounty on him, but it was rescinded following diplomatic meetings last month. Abdul Ghani stated that all armed factions will be dissolved and integrated into state institutions, pledging an inclusive process to form a new governing body. However, challenges remain, particularly concerning the integration of various rebel groups and the Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria that were not represented in recent discussions.

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Turkey on February 4, 2025, for discussions aimed at strengthening bilateral relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During their meeting, Erdogan committed to supporting Syria in its fight against terrorism, specifically threats posed by ISIS and the PKK, according to official statements. Al-Sharaa extended an invitation to Erdogan for an upcoming visit to Syria, with talks revolving around a potential defense pact. This agreement could enable Turkey to utilize Syrian airspace and establish military bases, particularly at Palmyra military airport and the T4 base located in Homs province. Furthermore, Erdogan's administration may assist in training a newly unified Syrian military following the integration of various rebel factions. Turkey aims to enhance its influence in post-Assad Syria while addressing regional security issues, particularly in relation to the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as linked to the PKK. Concurrently, Russia is engaged in negotiations regarding the future of its naval and airbases in Syria. Al-Sharaa’s discussions with Erdogan come after a conversation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on Syria's reconstruction and economic revival efforts.

Following the unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the newly established Syrian leadership is reportedly demanding Russia extradite the ousted dictator, complicating Moscow's position in the region. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov confirmed ongoing communication with the new Syrian authorities but acknowledged that Russian military interests in Syria are now at risk, as reported by local media. This week, a high-ranking Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, met with transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who emphasized the need for Russia to regain the confidence of the Syrian populace through tangible actions, such as compensation payments and reconstruction support. The state news agency Sana outlined that the new leadership expects Russia to recognize its past mistakes to restore relations. Moreover, reports from Reuters suggest that the retention of Russian military bases may hinge on Assad's surrender to the new government. Such a move would place Russia in a precarious situation, jeopardizing its strategic foothold in the region while betraying previously loyal allies, raising significant concerns about the future of Russian influence in Syria.