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The international scientific community is racing against time to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4, which currently has a more than 2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. As the asteroid moves further away from our planet, astronomers are struggling to observe it with ground-based telescopes, as only devices with a diameter of at least two meters can currently detect it. By early March, only larger telescopes will be able to monitor its trajectory, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).
Scientists have received over 340 observations of 2024 YR4 from telescopes worldwide, with predictions suggesting uncertainty regarding its closest approach to Earth. NASA and ESA officials note the probability of a successful assessment to rule out the impact possibility by May is around 90%. The asteroid, first discovered on December 27, 2024, might range from 40 to 90 meters in diameter, complicating impact management strategies if needed.
The United Nations has activated planetary defense bodies for the first time to address the situation, which may include exploring deflection methods if risks escalate, as stated by Paolo Martino of the ESA.