UN Anticipates Mass Return of Syrian Refugees Amid Political Changes

Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been appointed as the transitional president of Syria, according to an announcement by the Syrian rebel coalition on January 30, 2025. This shift marks a significant development following the removal of long-time dictator Bashar al-Asad in late December 2024. Al-Sharaa's role includes forming a provisional legislative council until a new constitution is adopted. The announcement was part of a nine-point declaration made during a "victory conference" by various rebel factions, which also called for the dissolution of Asad's government institutions, including the military and intelligence services. Despite this progress, the situation in Syria remains precarious, with lingering sectarian tensions and the uncertainty of long-term governance. Experts express skepticism regarding al-Sharaa's promises of inclusivity, noting his appointments primarily favor loyalists from Idlib. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) also maintain control over northeastern regions, complicating the political landscape. As Syria grapples with the implications of al-Sharaa's leadership, the international community remains cautious, particularly regarding sanctions.

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been named Syria's interim president following the recent overthrow of President Bashar Assad. This appointment was announced during a meeting of former insurgent factions in Damascus. The new interim administration has also declared the cancellation of the existing constitution, which was adopted in 2012 during Assad's rule, and plans to draft a new one. Al-Sharaa, known previously as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, was involved in the military campaign that led to Assad's removal in December. He has worked to distance himself from his past association with al-Qaida and has positioned himself as a proponent of pluralism and the rights of women and religious minorities. Colonel Hassan Abdul Ghani, spokesperson for the new government’s military operations, indicated that al-Sharaa would be establishing a temporary legislative council to facilitate the formation of governance structures. He also specified that all armed factions in the country will be disbanded and integrated into state institutions. Despite this significant transition, details regarding the mechanisms of al-Sharaa's selection as president remain unclear, including the nature of the assembly that chose him. The situation in Syria is developing, with regional and international responses to al-Sharaa's appointment yet to emerge.

A recent analysis highlights that water scarcity poses a significant threat to societies in the Middle East, with over 60% of the population living in areas facing critical water shortages. According to the World Resource Institute, fourteen out of the thirty-three countries projected to face the most severe water stress by 2040 are situated in this region. The implications of water scarcity extend beyond mere shortage; researchers argue it fuels social and political unrest. The decline in water availability, exacerbated by rural-to-urban migration, has intensified tensions in countries like Syria, where limited water access links closely to broader issues of governance and economic stability. Contrary to popular belief, the notion that water scarcity will lead to inter-state wars is increasingly being challenged. Scholars suggest that evidence supporting the concept of "water wars" is lacking. Historical data shows that cooperation over water resources has been more prevalent than conflict, especially in shared river basins such as the Jordan River and the Euphrates-Tigris. While the potential for local conflicts over water access remains, experts advocate for a focus on the domestic impacts of water scarcity. Strengthening local water management and fostering cooperative agreements between countries are deemed essential strategies to alleviate the socio-economic vulnerabilities affected by water shortage. As the region prepares for future challenges, addressing the local dimensions of water issues may prove more critical than the inter-state competition narrative.