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A leading UK scientist has raised alarms regarding the asteroid 2024 YR4, which poses a 1-in-43 chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. Dr. Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist based in London, cautions that current asteroid deflection techniques could inadvertently break the asteroid into dangerous fragments rather than deflecting it, thereby heightening impact risks.
First detected in December 2024, 2024 YR4 is approximately the size of a building and is regarded as a "city killer" due to its destructive potential. While NASA monitors the asteroid closely, Dr. Andrews expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of existing strategies such as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, which successfully altered the orbit of another asteroid in 2022.
Given the limited timeframe before the asteroid's expected arrival—just eight years—the scientist warns that attempts to change its course may not be feasible. "We might accidentally deflect it, but not enough to avoid a strike," Andrews stated. Despite the dangers, he suggests that it is likely the asteroid will miss Earth, emphasizing caution in deflection attempts.