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A severe heatwave sweeping across the United Kingdom is projected to lead to as many as 570 heat-related fatalities this weekend, according to a real-time analysis from researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London. The UK Health Security Agency has issued an amber heat-health alert for all of England, indicating a heightened risk for vulnerable populations.
The analysis predicts excess deaths stemming from the intense heat between June 19 and June 22, with daily estimates of potential fatalities. Researchers anticipate 114 deaths on Thursday, escalating to 266 on Saturday when temperatures are expected to exceed 32°C (89.6°F), before declining to 37 on Sunday. The majority of these deaths are expected among people aged 65 and older, highlighting the increased risk for those with pre-existing health conditions.
Dr. Malcolm Mistry, an assistant professor at LSHTM, stated that exposure to temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s can be fatal, particularly for vulnerable groups. London, the West Midlands, and the Southeast are expected to bear the highest death tolls from the heatwave.