U.S. Sanctions Lead to Increased Iranian and Russian Oil in Transit, Driving Up Prices

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The volume of Iranian and Russian oil stranded on tankers has surged to multi-month highs, primarily due to intensified U.S. sanctions that have significantly reduced the number of buyers, according to trade sources and analysts. Since October 2024, U.S. sanctions targeting entities engaged in oil dealings with Iran and Russia have particularly affected trade with major importers like China and India.

President Donald Trump has reinstated a "maximum pressure" strategy aimed at driving Iranian oil exports down to zero in an effort to thwart Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Analysts note that the impact of these sanctions has been compounded by a recent ban by China's Shandong Port Group on sanctioned tankers, which has limited the availability of shipping options.

As a result, Iranian floating oil storage has increased, with one estimate suggesting over 25 million barrels currently in transit, the highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, Russian oil shipping costs have also risen sharply, with the cost of transport from Russia's Far East to north China reportedly tripling amid the sanctions.

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