As the Paris Agreement approaches its tenth anniversary in 2025, there is an urgent need to reevaluate its long-term goals and their implications for current and future generations. The agreement aims to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels; however, a troubling scenario of temperature overshoot appears likely by mid-century. This overshoot period, where the global average temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold, could last for decades before stabilizing.
The risks associated with this scenario are profound, as the current generation will have to make difficult decisions that may prioritize short-term benefits over long-term sustainability. The so-called "overshoot generation" will bear the burden of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions that their predecessors failed to address, potentially relying on untested technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and geoengineering to do so.
A significant challenge lies in balancing the interests of three different generational groups: the current generation, the overshoot generation, and the post-overshoot generation, which is anticipated to reap the benefits of successful climate policies. Experts warn that without a fair distribution of responsibilities across these generations, the consequences could undermine efforts to create a just transition to a sustainable future.
There is no established timeline for achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, which complicates the pathway to climate stabilization. Immediate reductions in emissions may not lead to an immediate decline in global temperatures, due to the inherent lag in climate systems. Furthermore, the agreement allows for developing nations to peak their emissions before reducing them, placing additional strain on the timeline.
The authors of a recent article argue that achieving the Paris Agreement's objectives is crucial not only for environmental health but also for intergenerational justice. They emphasize the need for cooperative international relations to address the looming crises of climate change, which disproportionately affect poorer nations and could lead to mass migrations.
As we approach this critical juncture, the responsibility falls on the current generation to act decisively to mitigate climate change, ensuring that the overshoot generation is equipped to adapt and survive while fulfilling the hopes of those yet to come.
Loading...
