The New Cold War in Africa: A Battleground for Great Power Rivalry
A new analysis by Pádraig Carmody reveals that Africa is increasingly becoming a focal point in the geopolitical competition between major powers, notably the United States, Russia, and China. This shift marks what some analysts are calling a "New Cold War," a term reflecting growing tensions that partly stem from a resurgence of "domino" thinking regarding developments in the developing world.
Carmody argues that Africa offers external actors access to crucial resources, such as cobalt—which accounts for 70% of the global reserves found in the Democratic Republic of Congo—and serves as a significant market for manufactured goods, given its population of 1.4 billion. As major powers vie for influence, African nations stand at the crossroads, with political elites often leveraging these dynamics to maximize their own interests. Reports indicate that while China’s economic clout in Africa is substantial, its substantial retrenchment in projects like the Belt and Road Initiative signals an adaptive geopolitical strategy. In contrast, Russia’s presence, primarily through security operations like the Wagner Group, reflects its ambitions amid declining arms sales following its challenges in Ukraine.
Ultimately, the analysis posits that African leaders will likely seek to balance power dynamics between these superpowers while also facing the pressures of a global political landscape increasingly characterized by transactional relationships.
