Statistical Analysis Reveals Unusual Spike in Neonatal Deaths Under Lucy Letby

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A public inquiry examining the spike in neonatal deaths during Lucy Letby's tenure at the Countess of Chester Hospital has been informed that the sudden increase in fatalities in 2015 had a mere 0.008% probability of occurring based on previous mortality rates. Sir David Spiegelhalter, a renowned statistician, stated the rise in deaths during 2015 was "surprising" and warranted an internal investigation, but from a national perspective, it was not excessively unusual.

The inquiry revealed that the neonatal unit recorded three deaths in 2012, followed by two in 2013, and three in 2014, escalating to eight deaths in 2015 and five more in the first half of 2016. Letby, a former nurse convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder another seven between June 2015 and June 2016, was removed from the unit in July 2016 but maintains her innocence.

Spiegelhalter emphasized the importance of cautious interpretation of statistical data, noting that humans are often poor at recognizing trends and may misattribute significance to random events. The findings of the inquiry, led by Lady Justice Thirlwall, are expected to conclude in the coming months.

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