Sheinbaum's First 100 Days Mark Rise in Violence Amid Security Strategy Shift

The United States' relationship with Mexico is undergoing its most significant strain in decades, primarily due to recent threats of tariffs from President Donald Trump. According to reports, Trump has accused Mexico of facilitating illegal Chinese imports, failing to control migration, and contributing to the opioid epidemic in the U.S. as reasons for the impending tariffs. These accusations echo historical tensions between the neighboring countries, which have frequently navigated a web of political and economic confrontations. Historian John Womack noted that the current crisis signifies a breakdown in trust reminiscent of past conflicts, such as the Iraq War tensions in the early 2000s and the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s. Tariffs have historically ignited commercial battles; for instance, a similar scenario arose in 2009 when Mexico imposed tariffs on U.S. goods in response to border-related disputes. Professor Gustavo del Ángel emphasized that today’s crisis is notably more systemic than past events and represents the potential for a broader commercial conflict.

In her first three months as President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum has seen an alarming increase in murders and missing persons, surpassing rates experienced during her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Despite this, Sheinbaum's administration has ramped up security operations, arrests, and drug seizures. According to Armando Vargas from the think tank México Evalúa, the severity of violence she inherited is more acute than what López Obrador faced, indicating a troubling trend of "political-criminal violence" where organized crime exerts substantial control over local governance and the economy. Although Sheinbaum continues with previous administration policies centered on addressing root causes of violence, she has shifted the focus towards intelligence and investigation. The appointment of former Mexico City Security Chief Omar García Harfuch to lead national security efforts has redefined strategies, but whether this will lead to long-term improvements remains uncertain. Critics warn that past tactics may be replicated, resulting in unchanged or worsened conditions, given that Mexico’s judicial system often fails to deliver justice, with impunity rates exceeding 90%.

Claudia Sheinbaum's initial 100 days as Mexico's president have been marked by a troubling increase in violence, with higher rates of murder and missing persons compared to her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. According to reports from the think tank México Evalúa, Sheinbaum's administration has seen more violent incidents in regions where organized crime has grown entrenched, complicating efforts to regain state control. While she maintains López Obrador's foundational narrative of addressing root causes of violence, Sheinbaum has shifted focus to “intelligence” and “investigation.” Her administration's early months feature increased security operations and arrests, credited partly to appointing Omar García Harfuch as head of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection, which has altered the national security approach. However, the rise in violent crime, particularly "political-criminal violence," raises concerns. Armando Vargas from México Evalúa warns that Sheinbaum's inherited context is more dire than that of López Obrador. The administration's efficacy in addressing crime is under scrutiny, as high impunity rates for violent crimes persist, suggesting that substantive change is still needed.