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The global scientific community is urgently working to determine the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4, which poses a greater than 2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Currently retreating from Earth as it orbits the Sun every four years, observational opportunities are dwindling, with only larger telescopes set to detect it in the coming months, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered on December 27, 2024, is projected to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, according to astronomers like Juan Luis Cano, coordinator for ESA’s Planetary Defense Office. If impact conditions are determined, options for deflection could include launching impact missions, though the feasibility is under scrutiny.
Cano notes that while the interview probabilities have risen, there remains a 98% chance of no impact as of now. He also highlighted that the first activation of United Nations planetary defense bodies is underway to explore potential response strategies. Observations continue, with scientists eager to clarify the asteroid's characteristics before it becomes too difficult to track in May 2025.