Russia's Population Crisis: Potential to Halve by Century's End Amid War Impacts

A new report from the Atlantic Council warns that Russia could face a dramatic demographic crisis, with its population potentially halving by the end of the century. Authored by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University, the report highlights long-term population decline exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Data from the World Bank indicates that Russia's population growth has notably decreased over the past decade. The conflict has severely impacted demographics, resulting in the estimated loss of over 300,000 Russian troops killed or injured and the emigration of approximately one million Russians since the onset of the invasion.

The consequences of a diminishing population pose significant challenges for Russia's economy, which is already grappling with a severe labor shortage. By the end of 2023, the country was short an estimated 5 million workers, leading to reliance on migrant and even prison labor, solutions that Balzer argues are not sustainable.

The report emphasizes that without effective policies to manage population decline, Russia may increasingly depend on immigration from other regions to bolster its workforce and economic growth. Experts have warned that the demographic crisis could lead to diminished economic productivity and lower growth rates, further compounding Russia's already fragile economic situation, particularly following costly military actions in Ukraine.

Balzer asserts that if the current trends continue unchecked, the future of Russia's economy and its social stability could be at significant risk.