Norway's Oil and Gas Production Faces Decline, Raising Concerns for UK Energy Security

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Norway, long regarded as the UK’s primary energy supplier, has issued a stark warning about the imminent decline of its oil and gas production. Recent findings from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate indicate that production peaked in 2024 and is projected to decrease significantly in the coming years. The report estimates production could drop from approximately 230 million standard cubic meters to as low as 110 million by 2035.

This decline poses significant risks for the UK, which relied on Norway for over 50% of its gas and around 25% of its oil supplies last year. Norway has replaced the UK’s North Sea as the primary source of gas, with the UK’s production expected to fall further by 70% over the next decade. As Norwegian output wane, experts warn that this may create a reliance on Russia’s gas, raising geo-political alarm across Europe.

Investment in exploration and infrastructure is seen as critical to mitigate the decline, but with Norway's political landscape shifting towards greener policies and a commitment to reducing fossil fuel production, the future of oil and gas output in the country remains uncertain. The ongoing debate within Norway’s political circles about how quickly to transition from fossil fuels reflects a broader challenge facing many nations as they balance energy needs with environmental goals.

As the situation develops, both British and Norwegian leaders will need to collaborate to ensure energy security in the face of potentially dwindling supplies.

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