New Syrian Leaders Pressure Russia for Assad's Extradition

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of Syria's rebels who played a key role in the ousting of President Bashar Assad in December, has been appointed the country’s interim president. The announcement was made on January 31, 2025, by Col. Hassan Abdul Ghani, a spokesperson for the new government, as former insurgent factions met in Damascus and announced the cancellation of the existing constitution, according to state-run SANA news agency. Al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani and head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has promised to create a new government and constitution while pledging to protect the rights of women and religious minorities. The U.S. had previously designated a $10 million bounty on him, but it was rescinded following diplomatic meetings last month. Abdul Ghani stated that all armed factions will be dissolved and integrated into state institutions, pledging an inclusive process to form a new governing body. However, challenges remain, particularly concerning the integration of various rebel groups and the Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria that were not represented in recent discussions.

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Turkey on February 4, 2025, for discussions aimed at strengthening bilateral relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During their meeting, Erdogan committed to supporting Syria in its fight against terrorism, specifically threats posed by ISIS and the PKK, according to official statements. Al-Sharaa extended an invitation to Erdogan for an upcoming visit to Syria, with talks revolving around a potential defense pact. This agreement could enable Turkey to utilize Syrian airspace and establish military bases, particularly at Palmyra military airport and the T4 base located in Homs province. Furthermore, Erdogan's administration may assist in training a newly unified Syrian military following the integration of various rebel factions. Turkey aims to enhance its influence in post-Assad Syria while addressing regional security issues, particularly in relation to the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as linked to the PKK. Concurrently, Russia is engaged in negotiations regarding the future of its naval and airbases in Syria. Al-Sharaa’s discussions with Erdogan come after a conversation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on Syria's reconstruction and economic revival efforts.

As water scarcity intensifies in the Middle East, it has emerged as the most significant threat to regional stability, according to the World Resource Institute. Over 60% of the population lives in areas facing severe water shortages, with fourteen of thirty-three expected water-stressed countries by 2040 located in the region. Water scarcity has been linked to social unrest, particularly in Syria, where inaccessibility has driven migration and political tensions, suggesting that while droughts may exacerbate issues, underlying political, social, and economic grievances are the primary conflict drivers. While claims of "water wars" have been historically pronounced by figures like Boutros Boutros Ghali, recent studies challenge the validity of this narrative, noting a lack of evidence for inter-state conflict over water in the past fifty years. Instead, conflicts often occur at local levels, disrupting livelihoods and social structures. Researchers Dolatyar and Gray argue that cooperation over water resources has historically prevailed, illustrated by transboundary water agreements. This emphasizes the need for local-level water management strategies and cooperative solutions to address the challenges posed by growing water scarcity in the region.