New Study Estimates Death Toll in Gaza War Significantly Higher than Official Figures

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A recent study published in The Lancet medical journal has revealed that the death toll in Gaza during the initial nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was approximately 40% higher than the figures reported by the health ministry in Gaza. As of June 30, 2024, the ministry reported 37,877 deaths, while the study estimates that the actual number of deaths from traumatic injuries ranges between 55,298 and 78,525, with a best estimate of 64,260.

This estimation represents about 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population and indicates that women, children, and the elderly made up approximately 59% of the deceased. The study employed a statistical method known as "capture-recapture," using data from the Gaza health ministry, an online survey, and obituaries on social media to derive its findings.

Criticism regarding the credibility of the health ministry's data has been voiced by Israel, while the United Nations has affirmed its reliability. Notably, the study does not account for indirect deaths resulting from factors such as a lack of healthcare, food shortages, or sanitation issues, nor does it include the estimated 10,000 missing individuals believed to be buried under rubble.

Researchers acknowledge potential overestimations and highlight the importance of addressing mortality in war-torn areas beyond just traumatic injuries. As discussions and potential criticisms around the findings unfold, there is a consensus on the high mortality rates resulting from the ongoing conflict.

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