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NASA has announced that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6 percent chance, or approximately 1-in-38, of colliding with Earth in 2032. This figure represents the highest risk recorded by the agency for a space object, according to New Scientist. Initially detected in December, the asteroid’s odds of impact have escalated from 1-in-83 to its current status as astronomers refine its trajectory.
The European Space Agency estimates a slightly lower risk at 2.41 percent. Measuring between 40 to 90 meters in diameter, 2024 YR4 could unleash energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT upon impact, sufficient to devastate a city. NASA indicated that impact probabilities could fluctuate as further observations are made, stating that “as more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.”
The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe the asteroid next month, which will be pivotal for assessing possible risks, as its visibility will diminish when it moves behind the Sun in April.