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NASA has reported a 3.1% chance that the asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032, an increase from 2.6% last week. The asteroid, first detected by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile on December 27, 2024, has an estimated diameter of 177 feet, comparable to the size of a building. While the asteroid poses a risk to major cities, experts have emphasized that there is no immediate cause for alarm.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society, stated, "I'm not panicking," suggesting that as more data is gathered, the probability of a strike could fluctuate before potentially dropping to zero. The International Asteroid Warning Network had previously issued a warning in January when the likelihood of impact first surpassed 1%.
Meanwhile, a simulation of the potential impact, created by animator Alvaro Gracia Montoya, has gained traction online, illustrating the extensive damage a strike could cause. Despite the raised odds, there remains a 96.9% chance that 2024 YR4 will miss Earth entirely.