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NASA has reported an increased risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, raising the probability of an impact to 3.1%. Major urban centers, including Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka, fall within the asteroid’s risk corridor, which spans multiple continents. The asteroid, initially tracked since its appearance on NASA's automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024, could potentially cause significant destruction, possibly exploding midair with a force exceeding 8 megatons of TNT, according to NASA.
The agency notes that while the possibility of a direct hit remains low, the asteroid’s trajectory has made it a subject of ongoing observation through ground-based telescopes. Previous assessments placed the impact probability at only 2.3% but updated analyses have led to the current estimate. The asteroid’s diameter is thought to be between 40-90 meters and is classified as a 'city killer,' indicating it poses a severe risk to populated areas. For now, further examination of its orbit may help clarify its potential threat, as similar objects have previously been ruled out through additional observations.