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The likelihood of a recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, colliding with Earth has surged to 3.1%, according to NASA. The announcement, made on Tuesday, marks a near doubling of the impact probability since the asteroid's discovery less than two months ago. Scientists warn that if a collision occurs, it could obliterate a city or trigger a tsunami. The potential impact date is December 22, 2032, with possible strike zones identified over the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea, or South Asia.
Despite the increased risk, experts urge calm. Bruce Betts from the Planetary Society noted that rising percentages can feel unsettling, but added that future data could lead to a significant decline in the probability. Initially, the estimate was 1.6%.
The asteroid, approximately 40 to 90 meters wide, was first spotted on December 27, 2024, in Chile. Historical comparisons highlight that while the consequences could be serious, 2024 YR4 is not a "planet-killer" and is unlikely to cause catastrophic damage akin to the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.