Mexico Faces Major Bilateral Crisis Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats

In her first three months as President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum has seen an alarming increase in murders and missing persons, surpassing rates experienced during her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Despite this, Sheinbaum's administration has ramped up security operations, arrests, and drug seizures. According to Armando Vargas from the think tank México Evalúa, the severity of violence she inherited is more acute than what López Obrador faced, indicating a troubling trend of "political-criminal violence" where organized crime exerts substantial control over local governance and the economy. Although Sheinbaum continues with previous administration policies centered on addressing root causes of violence, she has shifted the focus towards intelligence and investigation. The appointment of former Mexico City Security Chief Omar García Harfuch to lead national security efforts has redefined strategies, but whether this will lead to long-term improvements remains uncertain. Critics warn that past tactics may be replicated, resulting in unchanged or worsened conditions, given that Mexico’s judicial system often fails to deliver justice, with impunity rates exceeding 90%.

In her first three months as president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum faces an escalating security crisis, characterized by increased murder and disappearance rates compared to her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. According to a recent report by the think tank México Evalúa, Sheinbaum's administration saw more violent incidents during this period, though she has initiated more operations, arrests, and seizures of drugs and weapons. Sheinbaum continues the previous administration's focus, which emphasized tackling the root causes of violence but has introduced a more intelligence-driven approach. Her appointment of Omar García Harfuch to head the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection has been seen as a pivotal move in reorienting security tactics. However, experts, including Armando Vargas from México Evalúa, argue that the context of entrenched criminal regimes poses significant challenges. The effectiveness of Sheinbaum’s approach remains uncertain, as it heavily targets homicide rates while neglecting other forms of violence like extortion. The long-term impact of her aggressive actions raises questions about whether they will yield meaningful change or echo the failures of past strategies.

Claudia Sheinbaum's initial 100 days as Mexico's president have been marked by a troubling increase in violence, with higher rates of murder and missing persons compared to her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. According to reports from the think tank México Evalúa, Sheinbaum's administration has seen more violent incidents in regions where organized crime has grown entrenched, complicating efforts to regain state control. While she maintains López Obrador's foundational narrative of addressing root causes of violence, Sheinbaum has shifted focus to “intelligence” and “investigation.” Her administration's early months feature increased security operations and arrests, credited partly to appointing Omar García Harfuch as head of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection, which has altered the national security approach. However, the rise in violent crime, particularly "political-criminal violence," raises concerns. Armando Vargas from México Evalúa warns that Sheinbaum's inherited context is more dire than that of López Obrador. The administration's efficacy in addressing crime is under scrutiny, as high impunity rates for violent crimes persist, suggesting that substantive change is still needed.