Mearsheimer Predicts Continued Conflict in Ukraine, Skepticism Toward Trump's Peace Proposal

Tensions escalated Saturday as Russia and Ukraine conducted heavy aerial attacks, with each reporting over 100 enemy drones targeting their territories. The strikes came shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss a potential 30-day ceasefire, which both nations have expressed varying levels of support for. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated his government backs the ceasefire proposal but voiced skepticism regarding Russia's commitment. Following virtual talks with Western allies, Zelenskyy warned that Russia's military buildup along Ukraine's border signals a lack of interest in genuine diplomatic efforts. He assured that Ukrainian troops continue their operations in the Kursk region, countering claims of encirclement by Russian forces. Meanwhile, Ukraine's air force reported that overnight drone attacks from Russia included 178 drones and two ballistic missiles, with approximately 130 intercepted. The Russian offensive caused significant damage to energy facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions, affecting power supply to residents, according to Ukraine's DTEK energy firm.

A new report by the United Nations' Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine has concluded that Russia has committed crimes against humanity, including enforced disappearances and torture, during its ongoing military invasion of Ukraine. The report, scheduled for formal presentation next week, cites a systematic attack against civilians as the context for these violations, with many people detained under Russian control and subsequently transferred to various detention facilities. The report highlights that Russian authorities failed to provide information on the whereabouts of many detainees, resulting in numerous individuals being missing for extended periods, and some reportedly dying in captivity. "The commission has concluded that Russian authorities committed enforced disappearances and torture as crimes against humanity," the report stated. Additionally, the report notes that prisoners of war have also suffered torture, with evidence of systematic use of severe methods, including sexual violence during interrogations. The inquiry further claims that Russian troops have engaged in the unlawful killing of captured Ukrainian soldiers, reflecting a broader policy against taking prisoners. Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting the establishment of this high-level UN investigation.

Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal amid ongoing conflict with Russia, following discussions with U.S. officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine is ready to halt military action, pending Russia's acceptance of the ceasefire terms. The Trump administration also announced the lifting of a recent suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing, which had been implemented to encourage Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to engage in negotiations. These talks represent a pivotal moment for U.S.-Ukraine relations, particularly after a contentious meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy last month. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials expressed the need for viable security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Following the announcement of the peace talks, Ukraine executed a significant attack involving 343 drones targeting Russian regions, further escalating tensions. Russian officials have yet to respond to the ceasefire proposal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized the United States' role in communicating the outcomes of the discussions in Jeddah.