Japan Warns of Impending Megaquake with Potential Catastrophic Impact

A recent government report warns that Japan's economy could incur losses of up to ¥270.3 trillion (approximately $1.8 trillion) due to a potential megaquake off its Pacific coast. The Cabinet Office indicated that this figure represents nearly half of the nation’s total GDP and has increased from a previous estimate of ¥214.2 trillion, attributing the rise to inflation and updated ground data, which expand expected flood areas.
Japan, situated in a seismic hotspot, has an estimated 80% probability of experiencing a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake along the Nankai Trough, a submerged zone stretching nearly 900 kilometers off the country’s southwest coast. In a worst-case scenario, the report projects up to 1.23 million evacuees, representing about 1% of Japan's population, and a death toll potentially reaching 298,000 if the quake occurs at night during winter.
This advisory follows last year's heightened warnings after a magnitude-7.1 quake near the Trough, underscoring increasing seismic risks in the region, similar to the catastrophic 2011 disaster which resulted in over 15,000 fatalities.