Iran Open to Renewed Diplomacy with US Amid Tensions

A report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) claims that Iran is secretly developing nuclear missiles with the capability to reach Europe, including potential targets such as Greece. The NCRI, an exiled opposition group, states that these missiles are being produced at two facilities disguised as satellite launch sites and are capable of traveling over 3,000 kilometers. According to the NCRI, one key facility identified is the Shahrud missiles site, which is managed by Iran's Organization for Advanced Defense Research and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The group alleges that a nuclear warhead being developed there will be fitted onto a Ghaem-100 missile, which has already undergone at least three test launches disguised as satellite operations. A second facility, reportedly over 43 miles southeast of Semnan, is believed to be developing Simorgh missiles using North Korean designs, with NCRI alleging that parts of this site are concealed underground. Soona Samsami, a representative of the NCRI in the U.S., criticized Tehran for accelerating its nuclear weapon development amidst vulnerability due to international pressure.

Iran is leveraging hostage-taking as a strategic diplomatic tool amid looming nuclear negotiations, with the recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala highlighting this tactic. Sala was detained in December 2024 and released on January 8, 2025, reportedly in exchange for the release of Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini from Italy. Political scientist David Rigoulet-Roze notes that such actions aim to secure concessions, including prisoner swaps and the unblocking of frozen funds. This approach to diplomacy has intensified since the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and underscores Iran's efforts to pressure European nations ahead of the agreement's expiration on October 18, 2025. The release of Sala and another European hostage, Nahid Taghavi, signifies Iran's strategic maneuvering, as it seeks renewed dialogue with countries involved in the nuclear talks—including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. As the situation evolves, the Iranian government aims to exploit divisions within Europe and extract favorable terms in its negotiations with Western powers, reflecting a long-standing pattern of obtaining leverage through hostage diplomacy.

Iran's recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala on January 8, following her arrest in December, underscores the country's ongoing strategy of hostage diplomacy as a foreign policy tool, particularly during a crucial year for nuclear negotiations. According to political scientist David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, Iran uses such arrests to negotiate for the release of its nationals or for financial concessions. Sala's release coincided with Iran's diplomatic overtures to re-engage with Western nations regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) slated to expire on October 18. Former Iranian political prisoner Taghi Rahmani noted that Iran perceives an opportunity to apply pressure on Europe in light of a new U.S. administration. Amid rising tensions, the cases of Western hostages, including French nationals, highlight concerns over Iran's tactics. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has characterized the conditions of some European detainees in Iran as akin to "torture," while emphasizing that the release of hostages must precede any negotiations.