Global Astronomers Race to Monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4's Trajectory

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The global scientific community is urgently observing asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a current 2% probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. As the asteroid moves away from Earth on a four-year orbit, its visibility diminishes; by early March, only telescopes of four meters or larger will be able to detect it, which will soon be limited to the most advanced observatories. Juan Luis Cano from the European Space Agency noted that the chance of fully ruling out a potential impact stands around 90% before the asteroid becomes too distant in early May.

Since its discovery in December 2024, approximately 340 observations have been collected globally. Given the uncertainty in its trajectory due to gravitational influences, scientists aim to gather more data to clarify the asteroid's risks. Astronomer Julia de León emphasized the importance of ongoing observations, stating that understanding the asteroid's properties is critical. Should an impact be confirmed, the asteroid's size, estimated between 40 and 90 meters, could dictate response strategies, including potential evacuation plans in affected regions.

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