Experts Warn of Catastrophic Earthquake Risk in Istanbul

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Experts are raising alarms over the potential for a devastating earthquake in Istanbul, predicting that hundreds of thousands could die if proper precautions are not taken. According to Naci Görür, a prominent earthquake researcher, over 100,000 buildings in the city are at high risk of collapse due to inadequate safety measures. Turkey has struggled to prepare for future seismic events, even two years after experiencing significant earthquakes that devastated parts of the nation.

Görür emphasized that neither local nor central authorities, nor the general public, fully grasp the severity of the threat. "Earthquake resilience measures in Turkish cities are insufficient," he stated. Geology professor Şükrü Ersoy echoed these concerns, noting that many at-risk structures remain unreinforced.

Turkey's Urban Development Minister Murat Kurum warned that Istanbul would not withstand a major quake, with estimates indicating that 1.5 million residential and commercial buildings are at risk. The anticipated earthquake, likely centered around 15 kilometers from the city in the Marmara Sea, has a 60% probability of occurring with a magnitude above 7 by 2030, according to the Kandilli Observatory.

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