China's Economic Growth Projected to Slow Further Amid Ongoing Challenges

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China's economy is facing significant headwinds, with a survey estimating growth of only 4.9 percent in the past year, slightly below the government's target of around five percent. This marks the weakest growth the country has seen since 1990, excluding pandemic years, and it reflects ongoing concerns over domestic consumption and a prolonged crisis in the property sector.

The forecast for 2024 is less optimistic, with projections suggesting growth could dip to 4.4 percent. Analysts warn that without major improvements, the figure could drop below four percent by 2026. Various economists note that while the growth rate might allow officials to claim success, the underlying economic challenges remain substantial.

Key issues include a lack of consumer confidence as the property market continues to struggle, leading to fears among investors and local governments burdened with rising debt. Recently unveiled measures from Beijing, such as interest rate cuts and relaxed property purchase rules, aim to stimulate activity in the economy, which narrowly avoided deflation last month.

Compounding these challenges, the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises concerns about increased trade tensions, which could further impact Chinese exports. Experts predict a potential hike in tariffs might impede economic performance, emphasizing the need for Beijing to foster domestic demand as a new growth engine.

In preparation for these challenges, Beijing has indicated plans to relax fiscal policies in 2025, aiming to boost consumption through subsidies. However, the effectiveness and extent of these proposed measures remain to be seen, with more details expected during China's annual parliamentary session in March.

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