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The international scientific community is urgently monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which currently has a greater than 2% probability of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. As the asteroid moves further from our planet on its four-year orbit, observations become increasingly difficult. By early March, only four-meter telescopes will detect it, with the eight-meter Very Large Telescope in Chile being among the few capable by April.
According to Juan Luis Cano from the European Space Agency, the probability of ruling out an impact before the asteroid becomes too faint in May is around 90%. The asteroid, discovered on December 27, 2024, is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, but little is known about its exact characteristics.
A potential impact could lead to comparable consequences as past events, as noted by scientists. The United Nations has activated planetary defense organizations to monitor the asteroid, considering various options, including deflection missions, if more data confirms the risk. Paolo Martino, head of planetary defense missions at the ESA, emphasized the complexities in predicting the asteroid's trajectory.