Assessing the Impact of the Paris Agreement: A Dilemma for Current and Future Generations

As the Paris Agreement approaches its tenth anniversary in 2025, experts urge a reassessment of its long-term goals and their implications for current and future generations. In an optimistic scenario, effectively implementing the agreement could resolve the climate crisis by the end of the 21st century. However, experts warn of an impending "overshoot" period during which global temperatures are expected to exceed the proposed threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century.

The "overshoot generation," those living during this critical period, will bear the burden of extensive greenhouse gas (GHG) removal to stabilize temperatures while the "post-overshoot generation" could benefit from a more stable climate. Concerns persist regarding the availability and scalability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and other untested geoengineering methods necessary for this mitigation.

This complex intergenerational dynamic raises significant issues of fairness and justice, highlighting potential conflicts of interest between the current generation's policies, the overshoot generation's survival, and the post-overshoot generation's climate aspirations. Experts emphasize that a focus on intergenerational justice is essential, arguing that the current generation must consider the impacts of their actions on future populations.

Furthermore, as extreme climate events intensify due to rising temperatures, poorer countries are anticipated to suffer the most, leading to unprecedented mass migrations. International cooperation is crucial to address these challenges effectively. The article concludes by stressing that the decisions made today could either pave the way for a climate-resilient future or contribute to disastrous outcomes for the subsequent generations.