Ahmad Al-Sharaa Named Interim President of Syria Following Assad's Ouster

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Turkey on February 4, 2025, for discussions aimed at strengthening bilateral relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During their meeting, Erdogan committed to supporting Syria in its fight against terrorism, specifically threats posed by ISIS and the PKK, according to official statements. Al-Sharaa extended an invitation to Erdogan for an upcoming visit to Syria, with talks revolving around a potential defense pact. This agreement could enable Turkey to utilize Syrian airspace and establish military bases, particularly at Palmyra military airport and the T4 base located in Homs province. Furthermore, Erdogan's administration may assist in training a newly unified Syrian military following the integration of various rebel factions. Turkey aims to enhance its influence in post-Assad Syria while addressing regional security issues, particularly in relation to the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as linked to the PKK. Concurrently, Russia is engaged in negotiations regarding the future of its naval and airbases in Syria. Al-Sharaa’s discussions with Erdogan come after a conversation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on Syria's reconstruction and economic revival efforts.

Following the unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the newly established Syrian leadership is reportedly demanding Russia extradite the ousted dictator, complicating Moscow's position in the region. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov confirmed ongoing communication with the new Syrian authorities but acknowledged that Russian military interests in Syria are now at risk, as reported by local media. This week, a high-ranking Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, met with transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who emphasized the need for Russia to regain the confidence of the Syrian populace through tangible actions, such as compensation payments and reconstruction support. The state news agency Sana outlined that the new leadership expects Russia to recognize its past mistakes to restore relations. Moreover, reports from Reuters suggest that the retention of Russian military bases may hinge on Assad's surrender to the new government. Such a move would place Russia in a precarious situation, jeopardizing its strategic foothold in the region while betraying previously loyal allies, raising significant concerns about the future of Russian influence in Syria.

As water scarcity intensifies in the Middle East, it has emerged as the most significant threat to regional stability, according to the World Resource Institute. Over 60% of the population lives in areas facing severe water shortages, with fourteen of thirty-three expected water-stressed countries by 2040 located in the region. Water scarcity has been linked to social unrest, particularly in Syria, where inaccessibility has driven migration and political tensions, suggesting that while droughts may exacerbate issues, underlying political, social, and economic grievances are the primary conflict drivers. While claims of "water wars" have been historically pronounced by figures like Boutros Boutros Ghali, recent studies challenge the validity of this narrative, noting a lack of evidence for inter-state conflict over water in the past fifty years. Instead, conflicts often occur at local levels, disrupting livelihoods and social structures. Researchers Dolatyar and Gray argue that cooperation over water resources has historically prevailed, illustrated by transboundary water agreements. This emphasizes the need for local-level water management strategies and cooperative solutions to address the challenges posed by growing water scarcity in the region.